• June 29, 2018
  • David Marks
  • 0

30-Day Forecast Accuracy Weather Analysis for Houston

Abstract

This paper presents an accuracy weather analysis for Houston County, the United States of America. According to this analysis, it is evident that skill is quite critical in forecasts of rainfall, cloud cover, temperature, , air pressure, precipitation, and visibility. Furthermore, this aspect is critical in making qualitative description of the forecasted weather out of the 30 days in advance. This analysis has as well unearthed the prevalence of a long term trend as it regards to the accuracy of the forecasts. For instance, the forecast of the expected rainfall for day 10 (average error ~ 1.5°C) are as skilful as those of day 2 or 5.  Particularly, the current paper seeks to present a 30 analysis of a 30 day weather forecast for Houston County. The author will then proceed to document the trends, accuracy of the day-to-day medium range forecast for all the 30 days. The forecasts used are those prepared by the Weather Channel in partnership with Wunderground and the Weather Company, all of which are based in the United States.

Introduction

It has been argued that an improvement pertaining to the accuracy of weather forecasts, even if it is to a significant extend could save a significant amount of cash to the cost to managers, individuals, businesses and even the government. Different weather forecasters and companies provide varied weather forecasts. Therefore, it becomes critical to select the right weather forecaster in order to save time and space. It needs to be considered that not all weather forecasts are established the same. Private agencies including the Weather Channel, WSI or Custom do not simply outsource information from the National Weather Service (Forecast Watch, 2018). Instead, they employ their own models which they supplement with their meteorologists’ analysis to create a unique weather forecast.

This analysis of the stated weather forecast is made after comparing the Weather Channel forecast with the actual and persistent occurrence data collected within the 30 day period. The data for this comparison was collected from 10 regions in Houston County at specific times of the day. For instance, daily temperature forecasts were collected at 19hours (Western Standard Time) in the region of the United Stated and continued until the period was over.

30-Day Forecast Accuracy Weather Analysis for Houston

Methodology

There are six major attributes of a weather forecast that constitutes the overall quality. This includes uncertainty, sharpness, resolution accuracy, skil and reliability. However, Stanski et al. (1989) explains that there is no single verification measure that can effectively offer complete information pertaining to the quality of a weather forecast.  This analysis will employ reliability, accuracy, skill and resolution in making the assessment. These measures settled on are not only the easiest the measure but also the simplest. An analysis of the

Resolution is quite critical in making forecasts about precipitation since it has the capability of distinguishing between drizzle, hail, freezing rain, snow and rain. Skil relates to the accuracy of a given forecast as compared to some baseline or reference prediction such as a forecast which is compared to persistence of occurrence of the current conditions (Sanders, 1973). Therefore, an analysis of the accuracy of a weather forecast is quite important in ascertaining the validity and accuracy of the chosen weather forecast.

 

David Marks

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