COIS13013 Agt1 T12018 V03

COIS13013 Agt1 T12018 V03

Assessment item 1—Assignment 1

COIS13013 Agt1 T12018 V03

Due date:11:45 pm AEST, Friday, Week 6

Students are to submit electronically – max file size 5 M.

ASSESSMENT
Weighting:40%1
Length:Refer to individual section requirements

Objectives

This assessment item relates to course learning outcomes numbers 1, 2 and 6 as stated on the course profile.

Part A                                                                                                                    (20%)

This part emphasises on the use of a DSS tool, and students are required to demonstrate proficiency with Visual DSS™ (a DSS development language/DSS generator). 

Solve Questions 1, 2 and 3 using VISUAL DSS™.

Question 1

Your Cloud Pty Ltd is a cloud-based software development company located in Brisbane. The company is planning to introduce new responsive cloud based software application into the market. In recent times, the dynamic market competition has created some bad software investment decisions. Now senior management require a thorough analysis of every new product that is introduced to market. As a senior business analyst, you have been appointed to advise the senior management on the feasibility of the new product.

An initial analysis conducted by other analysts for the product claim the anticipated net present value (NPV) for the new product line is over $2 million and they have recommended the manufacture of the product based on this assessment.

Your task is to use a decision support system (DSS) and report to the senior management on whether the claim of the NPV being over $2 million is correct or incorrect using the relevant information given in Table 1.

Table 1: Summarised product details

Cost of production: $25.00 per unit
Annual overhead cost: $210,000 (cloud hosting is outsourced)
Initial investment needed: $1,750,000
Estimated selling price: $55.00 per unit
Market at time of introduction: 420,000 units per year
Market growth: 15% per year
Market share: Most likely 10%
Assumed economically useful lifetime: 4 years, commencing 2018
Discount rate used to analyse new product proposals is 12%

You need to assume that the overhead and initial investment occurs at the START of the respective year, profit occurs at the END of the year and initial investment was only applicable to the first year.

Your task:

  1. Develop a decision support model using Visual DSS using the variables described above. Include comments within your Visual DSS model to explain the variables and your calculations.
  2. Based on the result of your model, what is the net present value (NPV)? Explain whether the claim regarding the NPV being above $2 million is correct or incorrect.

Hints

  • Note that overhead and initial investment both occur at the START of the respective year, and profit occurs at the END of the year.
  • You should use the correct NPV formula in Visual DSS. Use the ‘Help’ feature within the Visual DSS application and Visual DSS tutorial to learn more about the correct NPV formula, which is applicable to the scenario, described in Question 1.
  • Initial investment is a startup cost applicable to the first period only (i.e. 2018).
  • The NPV is only relevant for the first period (i.e. 2018) for decision-making – so only report it for that period. Using NPV (0) in Visual DSS will allow you to achieve this.

Question 2

You are now asked to analyse the variations on the impact of market share, cost of producing, overheads and initial investment on the NPV. You need to conduct a risk analysis based on the information below:

  1. a) Market share: could be as low as 5% or as high as 15%, but is most likely to be 10%. The distribution could be represented using a triangular distribution.
  2. b) Unit costs can be described by normal distribution – mean of $30.00 and standard deviation of $12.00.
  3. c) Overhead: could be as low as $150,000 per year or as high as $350,000 per year, but is most likely to be $215,000 per year. The distribution could be represented using a triangular distribution.
  4. d) Initial investment requirements can be uniformly distributed between $1,000,000 and $2,000,000.

The senior management decided on the following decision criteria:

Decision criteria: The company is unwilling to proceed if there is a 20% or greater chance that the net present value will be less than $1,000,000 (1 million).

Your task:

  1. You are required to use Visual DSS to run a Monte Carlo simulation (a Risk Analysis).
  2. Produce a cumulative probabilities report and graph for the above question. Based on results and the decision criteria, explain whether the senior management should accept or reject the proposed production of the product.

Question 3

When the above analysis reached the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of your company, he became very concerned about the assumptions made in the model. His experience has taught him to consider the uncertainty associated with selling price and production costs more thoroughly. He required further analysis to be done by incorporating the following uncertainties to Question 1 model:

  • Selling price: uniformly distributed between $65 and $45.
  • Unit costs: normally distributed, mean of $25.00, standard deviation of $5.00.

He applied different decision criteria and was willing to go ahead with the product proposal if there was at least an 80% chance the net present value would be greater than $1,850,000.

Your task:

  • You are required to use Visual DSS to run a Monte Carlo simulation (a Risk Analysis). Based on your results determine whether the CEO will proceed under these uncertainties.
  • Produce a cumulative probabilities report and graph for the question. Based on results and the decision criteria, will the CEO accept or reject the proposed production of the product?

PART B: (maximum 500 words)                                                   (10%)

In this part, the students are required to demonstrate data validation by using Power BI.

Power BI is a business analytics service provided by Microsoft. It provides interactive visualizations with self-service business intelligence capabilities, where end users can create reports and dashboards by themselves, without having to depend on information technology staff or database administrators.

 

Demonstration 1

Open Microsoft Power BI Desktop. Use CarSales.xlsx as the Source Data. This is a worksheet of British car sales. Create the following on one Page Dashboard.

VisualisationFields
MatrixCountryName, ReportingYear, SalePrice
ColumnDeliveryCharge, Model
MapCountryName, LaborCost
CardSpareParts
SlicerModel

Your task:

  • Save a screenshot of the Dashboard.
  • Select DB9 in the slicer and save a second screenshot of the Dashboard.
  • Answer the following two questions:
  • Which Country has the most SalePrice (sum) of the DB9?
  • How can you use Power BI to validate business assumptions in this demonstration? (1 paragraph)

Demonstration 2

Visit Queensland Government data.

Search for: Advance Queensland Funding Recipients

Select Committed Funding Recipients

Download the CSV file. Open Microsoft Power BI Desktop. Select the CSV as a source.

Create the following on one Page Dashboard.

VisualisationFields
Pie ChartProgram, Count of Program
TableProgram, Funding_Committed
Stacked Bar ChartSector, Funding_Committed
TreemapProgram, Funding_Committed

 

Your task:

  • Save a screenshot of the Dashboard.
  • Select in the Treemap, Research Fellowship and save a 2nd screenshot of the Dashboard.
  • Answer the following two questions:
  • Which sectors receive Research Fellowship funding?
  • What potential issues are present in terms of data validation based on the fields? (1 paragraph)

Part C: (maximum 1000 words)                                                      (10%)

You are required to write a report to discuss how smart, connected products contribute to business analytics and transform companies by using business intelligence from a case study “How Smart, Connected Products Are Transforming Competition” (maximum 1,000 words).

Submission of Assessments

The assignment is to be submitted as 4 separate files using the electronic assignment submission system that can be accessed from the link on the course website. The four files to be submitted are as follows:

  • A word document with the answers to the questions for Part A, Part B and Part C. For the second question, the screenshots can be included in the word document.
  • The three Visual DSS files created for Part A (Questions 1, 2 and 3). Please ensure that these files are named clearly as Agt1_PartA_1.dss, Agt1_PartA_2.dss and Agt1_PartA_3.dss respectively. No zip file is allowed for the submission.

Marking Guide COIS13013 – Assignment 2                         (45 marks)

Part A
ContentMarks allowedMarks awardedComments
Question 1
Base model5
Correct NPV3
Decision outcome2
Question 2
Risk analysis model2
Correct NPV2
Decision outcome1
Question 3
Cumulative Probabilities result table2
Cumulative probabilities result figure2
Decision outcome and discussion1
TOTAL200
Part B
ContentMarks allowedMarks awardedComments
Demonstration 1   
The first screenshot1
The second screenshot1
sub-question_11
sub-question_22
Demonstration 2   
The first screenshot1
The second screenshot1
sub-question_11
sub-question_22
TOTAL100
Part C
ContentMarks allowedMarks awardedComments
How smart, connected products contribute to business analytics5
how smart, connected products help to transform companies by using business intelligence5
TOTAL100
TOTAL MARKS400
DEDUCTION (Plagiarism, late submission etc.)
FINAL MARKS0

 

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